My Later Than Expected Post on the iPhone

I definitely didn't expect that I'd finish my first post on the iPhone 3 months after it would come out. But when Steve Jobs' 'Thoughts on Music' came out, I decided that writing about that was a little more pressing than writing about a cellphone that wasn't coming out for, at the time, 5 months.

I would really like to bring attention to a little quote from my prediction post for Macworld 2007 regarding the then unannounced iPhone:

I don't expect this thing to blow us away, like all the rumours have suggested. I think Apple's going to play this safe... But this is definitely not going to be the shape-shifting, do-it-all phone that others are expecting.

I'm very happy that I was wrong.

The Product

I can't lie: I fucking love it. At least, I love what I've seen so far. The phone just blows me away with it's apparent ease of use, advanced operating system and crazy features. Is this as revolutionary as the Mac, or the graphical user interface that it introduced? I don't think so, but it definitely is nothing short of a revolution in the cellphone market as well as the broader portable electronics market, where portable devices (particularly cell-phones) and their operating systems are treated more like toys than real consumer products. It could very well popularize actual mobile internet usage, beyond just the stupid ringtone downloads that people seem to eat up like crazy. I also love the design, not so much because of the hardware itself, but because the design of the phone pretty much is the user interface.

Of course, there are issues that I have with it. First off, there's no user-replaceable battery. That just plain sucks. There will probably be smudges that will appear on the screen1 and the device won't have any support for third party apps (at least right off the bat).

A New Market

There seem to be some interesting directions that Apple's taking with the iPhone. One of them seems to be the market that they're after. Since Apple's not much of a business company (and since apparently the iPhone will not be able to sync from Outlook contacts on Windows PCs2), it appears that the iPhone is aimed squarely at normal consumers. However, there are many things about the iPhone that most consumers don't use on a phone. The web browser being one. Who needs a web browser? How many people actually use the web browsing capabilities of their cell-phone? I'm guessing that most people don't. The same can be said of Google Maps (which comes in it's own dedicated app form on the iPhone). About the only thing that users really use on their phones are the music playback capabilities (which don't seem to be particularly popular at all) and the phone features. Well, both of those things have been vastly improved on the iPhone, but what's with all the other stuff? Why would Apple put in all those capabilities and drive up the price?

Because they're trying to popularize it. By 'it', I mean internet functionality in general. What Apple's doing isn't particularly rare for the company. They've done it plenty of times before: laptops, USB, wireless networking, mp3 players, online music/video stores, podcasts, etc. have all been brought to market and popularized by Apple. What's interesting is the way that the company is bringing about this functionality. It's nothing like what they did with the iPod: a simple somewhat stripped down version at first and then many successive generations each adding several new features. Such a path can lead, if followed correctly, to a very robust, full-featured product, as it has with the iPod. Instead, like the Mac in 1984, Apple is betting the bank on the iPhone. It sort of represents Apple's 'hopes and dreams' for the future; they're little child that will let them grow in the cut-throat consumer electronics world.

Third-Party Applications

It has been explicitly stated by Apple that the iPhone will not run third-party apps. Now I don't know about recent rumblings, but regardless of what Apple is planning on releasing at launch, I believe that a third-party development environment and market are in the plans. However, I highly doubt that it will be as free-form as the Palm/Windows Mobile world. What seems likely is an environment much like the iPod games at first and then an eventual loosening of the restrictions to open it up to a wider range of developers. Ultimately, it seems to me that Apple wants to emphasize that the iPhone is not a PC and doesn't want to treat it as such.

- - - -

I guess the only thing that matters after all has been said and done is one thing: will it sell? Well, I see the iPhone doing very well. Is it gorgeous? Yes. Is it easy to use? Yes. Is it advanced? Hell yes! Is it expensive? Yes. It seems to me like all the ingredients are there for a successful product.

1. But apparently it only takes a wipe of the screen with one's sleeve to make smudges disappear.
2. Which is utterly stupid.


Material:
Macworld January 2007 Predictions
The Ultimate iPhone Frequently Asked Questions
The Apple Phone Show » iPhone Poker - Apple Phone Show
STATE OF THE ART; Apple Waves Its Wand At the Phone - New York Times

MacWorld 2007 Outcome: The New Apple

This was a bad year for my predictions. I was just as bad as last year. :p

Regardless of my predictions, this year's January Macworld was a stunner. It marked the end of Apple Computer Inc. and the beginning of Apple Inc. Beyond further iterations and cheaper versions of the iPhone, and actual Apple televisions with integrated Apple TVs, I can't actually think what else Apple might make. The next 5 years should be very interesting. :)

As usual, I shall give my thoughts on what was announced in bullet-point form.

Macs

• The Vista ad is a good addition to Apple's current lineup of Get A Mac ads. Plus, it's considerably funnier than the last batch they introduced a month or so ago.
  
• No iWork '07? No iLife '07? Fucking Christ, the sky's falling. (I'm sure these will get released later in the year)
• Absolutely nothing on Leopard. Man, I want to know what some of those "top-secret" features are.
• Oh man, the new AirPort Extreme is sweet.
  
• Something that alot of people haven't talked about in the wake of the iPhone: 50% of the Macs Apple are selling in the United States through all channels are new to Mac. Pretty damn sweet. I'm definitely looking forward to 4th quarter results.
• Aside from the above comments, Apple didn't say anything else about the Mac. For some reason, people are unnerved by this.

Apple TV

• The solution they came up with is not the best solution, but is alot better then just streaming the video. Essentially the device has a 40GB HD inside of it, and that's used to send content to it from one computer using iTunes. Then, with the Apple TV you can just traverse through the content. The Apple TV can also sync with the computer much like an iPod so that it constantly stays up to date according to your specifications. On top of that, it can also do streaming from up to 5 other computers.
  
• I wonder if OS X is running on this, like the iPhone is.
• What's the use in an HDMI-out when there's no HD content on iTunes. I'm thinking we'll see HD content on iTunes one month after Apple TV starts shipping (in February) at the very latest. Well, there's another prediction that'll die I bet. :p

I'll have more on the iPhone in a later post.

Eve of Macworld January 2007 Keynote

This is what Apple.com looks like now:


Let's see what it looks like tomorrow. :)

Oh, and if you're at a computer at 11:00AM tomorrow, then check out MacObserver's Livepage for up to date information as the keynote is taking place!